Description
Calejo Future Intelligence brings the future to the present by providing unique forecasts and future studies of the pulp and processed timber markets.
Calejo Future Intelligence offers dedicated forecast models for different pulp qualities and processed timber. They are updated once a month as new data is received.
At the core of the concept is a unique, self-developed forecasting model that uses artificial neural networks (ANN). With the help of self-learning systems Calejo helps customers to accurately identify reliable historic and future complex trends and patterns across a range of preselected and strategically important information categories.
Calejo work at the very forefront of research – and beyond. We have developed the algorithms beyond the latest scientific papers and have adapted them specifically for our markets.
Calejo distinguishes itself from competitors by including in its models a large amount of fundamental data and taking account of frequency shifts in market movements. This makes the models unique in the commodity market.
In the BMI forecasts so far the proportion of correct price trends is approximately 80 percent for all time horizons over six months. For purposes of comparison we can state that the price is rising 58 percent of the time looking 12 months ahead. Thus the model can identify whether the price will rise or fall in up to 80-85 percent of the cases relative to long-term forecasts. Looking 24 months ahead, the forecast lies very close to actual price evolution.
All results shown have been cross validated, which entirely compensates for the effects of any over-interpretation of results. Cross validation is an extremely strict test, which few statistical models can manage.
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